Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE game?

PvE

Of 4,013 developers who shipped a PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8,043 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×672 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 8,043 games are announced against 2,434 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 8,043 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,013
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $832 → $896 → $898 → $898 → $898 → $748 → $479 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,013
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $422k (exactly $422,079)
Developers, 2 yr 4,013
Released games 10,148
Announced 8,043
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,333,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 2,150 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8,043 games are announced against 2,434 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with PvE

244 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. PvE + Psychological Poor odds $600 64 devs
  2. PvE + Action Poor odds $599 2,587 devs
  3. PvE + Tactical Poor odds $599 472 devs
  4. PvE + Physics Poor odds $599 351 devs
  5. PvE + Choices Matter Poor odds $599 328 devs
  6. PvE + Card Game Poor odds $599 260 devs
  7. PvE + Card Battler Poor odds $599 212 devs
  8. PvE + Mystery Poor odds $599 195 devs
  9. PvE + Incremental Poor odds $599 180 devs
  10. PvE + Sports Poor odds $599 143 devs
  11. PvE + Racing Poor odds $599 101 devs
  12. Hero Shooter + PvE Poor odds $599 49 devs
  13. PvE + Detective Poor odds $599 41 devs
  14. Combat Racing + PvE Poor odds $599 40 devs
  15. PvE + Tanks Poor odds $599 35 devs
  16. PvE + Real Time Tactics Poor odds $598 203 devs
  17. PvE + Underground Poor odds $598 60 devs
  18. PvE + Western Poor odds $598 34 devs
  19. PvE + Nature Poor odds $564 190 devs
  20. PvE + Turn-Based Tactics Poor odds $540 340 devs
  21. PvE + Space Sim Poor odds $539 70 devs
  22. PvE + Assassins Poor odds $539 10 devs
  23. PvE + Strategy Poor odds $538 1,184 devs
  24. PvE + Animals Poor odds $538 25 devs
  25. PvE + Combat Poor odds $479 1,433 devs
  26. PvE + Shooter Poor odds $479 942 devs
  27. PvE + Sci-fi Poor odds $479 691 devs
  28. PvE + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $479 390 devs
  29. PvE + Robots Poor odds $479 146 devs
  30. PvE + Cyberpunk Poor odds $479 135 devs
  31. PvE + 4 Player Local Poor odds $479 90 devs
  32. PvE + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $450 77 devs
  33. PvE + 6DOF Poor odds $450 41 devs
  34. PvE + Puzzle Poor odds $449 331 devs
  35. PvE + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $449 189 devs
  36. PvE + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $449 65 devs
  37. PvE + Gothic Poor odds $449 44 devs
  38. PvE + Time Travel Poor odds $449 23 devs
  39. PvE + Crime Poor odds $419 27 devs
  40. PvE + Tabletop Poor odds $359 116 devs
  41. PvE + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $359 110 devs
  42. PvE + Trading Card Game Poor odds $300 39 devs
  43. PvE + Hex Grid Poor odds $300 19 devs
  44. PvE + Sniper Poor odds $300 11 devs
  45. PvE + Time Manipulation Poor odds $298 34 devs
  46. PvE + Steampunk Poor odds $269 39 devs
  47. PvE + Faith Poor odds $59 15 devs
  48. Diplomacy + PvE Dead $6.0k 4 devs
  49. Offroad + PvE Dead $5.0k 8 devs
  50. PvE + Traditional Roguelike Dead $479 44 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B Valheim 2026 · $418M Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.