Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Space Sim?

PvE + Space Sim

Of 70 developers who shipped a PvE Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 128 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 128 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $2.3k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $4.9k → $539 → $479 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 170
Announced 128
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Space Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 18,260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Space Engineers 2019 · $60M Empyrion - Galactic Survival 2020 · $18M Avorion 2020 · $9.7M Void Crew 2024 · $4.9M Wildgate 2025 · $4.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
In The Black · EA $19.99 84 72% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Impeller Studios
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Possible One: Lunar Industries · EA $24.99 53 64% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Upstairs Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.