Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective PvE game?

PvE + Detective

Of 41 developers who shipped a Detective PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×286 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 58 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.4k → $10k → $2.0k → $14k → $599 → $599 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $179,888)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 86
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 13,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost Watchers $14.99 12,729 86% 382k $5.7M (exactly $5,724,231) Renderise
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Conrad Stevenson's Paranormal P.I. older $9.99 860 93% 26k $258k (exactly $257,742) D&A Studios
This is a Ghost older $16.99 367 92% 11k $187k (exactly $187,060) Nuci
Inspector Schmidt - A Bavarian Tale older $17.99 340 77% 10k $183k (exactly $183,498) Active Fungus Studios
All in Abyss: Judge the Fake $15.99 375 54% 11k $180k (exactly $179,888) ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground
Demonsomnia · EA older $13.99 278 33% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Serhat Akgul
Among The Whispers - Provocation $14.99 101 79% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) D&A Studios
Deadly Quiet $9.75 89 55% 2.7k $26k (exactly $26,032) Tarba Paul Cornel, Abdul Rafy
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
DOOMED Detective Game $6.99 65 46% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,630) Azikton Studio
Fantastic Findings Hidden Seasons $11.99 29 89% 870 $10k (exactly $10,431) Shapeshift Entertainment ApS
Entities $4.99 53 50% 1.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,934) EY-Studio
Iridescent $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) DraymaDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.