Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery PvE game?

PvE + Mystery

Of 195 developers who shipped a Mystery PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 382 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×239 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 382 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 382 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 195
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $1.9k → $896 → $1.3k → $1.1k → $628 → $779 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 195
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 5% $150k (exactly $150,250)
Developers, 2 yr 195
Released games 452
Announced 382
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 26,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 112 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 382 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Inside the Backrooms 2022 · EA · $8.1M Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy 2026 · $5.3M Pacify 2019 · $4.9M Gloomwood 2022 · EA · $4.5M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inside the Backrooms · EA older $6.99 38,819 80% 1.2M $8.1M (exactly $8,140,344) MrFatcat
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Pacify older $4.99 32,921 86% 988k $4.9M (exactly $4,928,274) Shawn Hitchcock
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers
Dark Hours $9.99 3,481 81% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) Piece of Cake studios
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Alisa older $17.99 1,358 89% 41k $733k (exactly $732,913) Casper Croes
Backrooms Lost Runners · EA $13.99 592 75% 18k $248k (exactly $248,462) ShimStudioGames
All in Abyss: Judge the Fake $15.99 375 54% 11k $180k (exactly $179,888) ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground
Thick As Thieves $4.99 1,106 65% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) OtherSide Entertainment
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.