Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Shooter?

PvE + Shooter

Of 942 developers who shipped a PvE Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,714 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $650k, ×1042 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 1,714 games are announced against 538 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 1,714 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 942
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $1.4k → $628 → $599 → $564 → $719 → $449 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 942
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $655k (exactly $654,545)
Developers, 2 yr 942
Released games 2,611
Announced 1,714
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 549,855 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 526 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,714 games are announced against 538 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Back 4 Blood older $59.99 55,160 69% 1.7M $99M (exactly $99,271,452) Turtle Rock Studios
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Killing Floor 2 older $29.99 87,158 88% 2.6M $78M (exactly $78,416,053) Tripwire Interactive
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.