Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Offroad game?

Offroad + PvE

Only 8 developers shipped a PvE Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FUMES, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.0k against a market of $1.5k. 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.5k → $10k
Outcomes for Offroad + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,189)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 26
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Monster Jam™ Showdown older $49.99 213 71% 6.4k $319k (exactly $319,436) Milestone S.r.l.
OVERPASS™ older $29.99 104 51% 3.1k $94k (exactly $93,569) Zordix Racing
GeneRally 2 · EA older $14.99 110 78% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,467) Curious Chicken Games
RXC - Rally Cross Challenge · EA older $19.99 73 90% 2.2k $44k (exactly $43,778) Gigabit Games
N3Rally · EA $19.99 37 89% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) nae3apps
Supermarket Shriek older $19.99 19 89% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Billy Goat Entertainment Ltd
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Wide Open · EA older $19.99 15 80% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Talpidae
SuperTrucks Offroad Racing older $9.99 29 58% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Meltdown Interactive Media
WITHOUT A HITCH $7.99 21 90% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Codename Entertainment Inc.
Urban Shadows Racing™ Tokyo $4.99 17 64% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) TechRoar, TechRoarLex
MonoRace $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SIA BASE LOGIC
Boom Gear $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Asyynk Studios
Base Breakers $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Space Bacon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.