Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Hex Grid game?

PvE + Hex Grid

Only 19 developers shipped a PvE Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hive Blight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 53 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $2.6k → $12k → $599 → $2.7k → $0 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 61
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 568 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M The Troop 2023 · $979k Tales & Tactics 2024 · $937k Hex of Steel 2020 · $647k DAISENRYAKU PERFECT 4.0 2018 · $211k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
DAISENRYAKU PERFECT 4.0 older $59.99 117 35% 3.5k $211k (exactly $210,565) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Final Theory older $14.99 386 79% 12k $174k (exactly $173,584) Monticube
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Role of Hex older $9.99 93 69% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Verde
Castle Constructor older $11.99 72 80% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) Sisyphean Games
Paladin's Oath older $5.99 125 86% 3.8k $22k (exactly $22,462) Fire Biscuit Games
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons
Politon $4.99 81 90% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) Pinq Games
Hex Blast $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Soy Boy Games
Daemon Sigil $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Ember Light Interactive
Hexateria $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Jakub Nejman
Fire and Movement · EA $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) 星川友亮
Network Notation $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Matchbox Games LLC
Catnip Wars $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ender Knight

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.