Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE 4 Player Local game?

PvE + 4 Player Local

Of 90 developers who shipped a PvE 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×245 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 169 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 169 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $838 → $2.2k → $539 → $1.1k → $1.3k → $240 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 5% $154k (exactly $153,688)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 271
Announced 169
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, 4 Player Local; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Local Multiplayer, Local Co-Op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Family Friendly, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 13,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Zort · EA $4.00 11,738 90% 352k $1.4M (exactly $1,408,560) Londer Software
Dokapon Kingdom: Connect older $49.99 801 86% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,260) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Sting
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
Dungeons of Sundaria older $9.99 3,061 74% 92k $917k (exactly $917,382) Industry Games
WE ARE FOOTBALL 2024 older $39.99 751 79% 23k $901k (exactly $900,975) Winning Streak Games GmbH
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition older $14.99 1,778 74% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) BetaDwarf
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
SUPER BOMBERMAN COLLECTION $19.99 294 87% 8.8k $176k (exactly $176,312) RED ART GAMES
Phantom Breaker: Battle Grounds Ultimate $24.99 205 84% 6.2k $154k (exactly $153,688) Rocket Panda Games Japan
HOT WHEELS™ Infinite Rush $49.99 55 65% 1.7k $82k (exactly $82,484) Milestone S.r.l.
Wendigo Blue · EA $9.99 146 90% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) EndlessFluff
Snow Bros. Wonderland $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Tatsujin, Bitwave Games, Toaplan
Pocket Cars $9.99 114 87% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Gen90Software
Floorball League 2010 $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Prodigium Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.