Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Puzzle game?

PvE + Puzzle

Of 331 developers who shipped a PvE Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 500 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $110; 1 in 20 cleared $41k, ×67 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 500 games are announced against 189 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 500 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 331
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.1k → $748 → $628 → $539 → $450 → $449 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 331
Bottom 30% $105 (exactly $105)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,633)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $41,958)
Developers, 2 yr 331
Released games 912
Announced 500
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 24,988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. 9 in 10 of the 197 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 500 games are announced against 189 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Strange Brigade older $49.99 8,309 84% 249k $12M (exactly $12,461,007) Rebellion
Inside the Backrooms · EA older $6.99 38,819 80% 1.2M $8.1M (exactly $8,140,344) MrFatcat
Ghost Watchers $14.99 12,729 86% 382k $5.7M (exactly $5,724,231) Renderise
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Draw & Guess older $4.99 31,627 83% 949k $4.7M (exactly $4,734,562) Acureus
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Dungeons of Hinterberg older $22.99 2,403 93% 72k $1.7M (exactly $1,657,349) Microbird Games
Train Valley 2 older $14.99 2,356 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,493) Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timof… (Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timofey Shargorodskiy, Flazm)
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition older $14.99 1,778 74% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) BetaDwarf
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Storebound $7.99 1,042 76% 31k $250k (exactly $249,767) Embers
Backrooms Lost Runners · EA $13.99 592 75% 18k $248k (exactly $248,462) ShimStudioGames
Ghost Master: Resurrection $19.99 374 82% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) Mechano Story Studio
SUPER BOMBERMAN COLLECTION $19.99 294 87% 8.8k $176k (exactly $176,312) RED ART GAMES
Ruined Nurse $6.99 589 83% 18k $124k (exactly $123,513) eTIRUe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.