Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Incremental game?

PvE + Incremental

Of 180 developers who shipped a PvE Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 278 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 278 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 278 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 180
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $30 → $624 → $299 → $839 → $594 → $1.0k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 180
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $106k (exactly $106,427)
Developers, 2 yr 180
Released games 356
Announced 278
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 205% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 17,868 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 278 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BitCraft Online 2025 · EA · $1.6M Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M Horripilant 2026 · $702k Master Healer Kale with useless party 2026 · $281k Desktop Defender 2025 · $263k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Master Healer Kale with useless party $4.99 1,879 95% 56k $281k (exactly $281,286) Evrac Studio
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Zero Stress King: Idle Defense $4.99 1,679 87% 50k $251k (exactly $251,346) Pauloondra
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Kin and Quarry $9.99 400 75% 12k $120k (exactly $119,880) The Fox Knocks
Orc Incremental $7.99 444 75% 13k $106k (exactly $106,427) Nice Ride

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.