Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Trading Card Game?

PvE + Trading Card Game

Of 39 developers who shipped a PvE Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 129 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 129 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $418 → $1.2k → $14k → $599 → $240 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 5% $163k (exactly $162,737)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 105
Announced 129
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Trading Card Game; all of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Card Game, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 1,502 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2022 · $2.5M Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M Zup! F 2019 · $463k Erannorth Chronicles 2021 · $256k Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers 2025 · $163k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Zup! F older $1.99 7,749 96% 232k $463k (exactly $462,615) Quiet River
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Handmancers · EA $14.99 76 88% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) 58BLADES
Final Stardust: Cosmic Nexus older $14.99 72 75% 2.2k $32k (exactly $32,378) NourSaiFR
Cartridge Defense older $11.99 80 91% 2.4k $29k (exactly $28,776) Out Gaming
Fairtravel Battle CCG · EA $14.99 52 98% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Flaming Torch Games
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Cardaire $9.99 50 86% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) aeiou
Card Summoner $14.99 32 50% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Happenstance Games
Card Artisan $12.99 36 91% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Fullen Games
Truco Argentino $5.99 46 95% 1.4k $8.3k (exactly $8,266) Agustin Rambaldo
VELATO · EA $8.99 18 100% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) VELATO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.