Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars game?

Mars

Of 79 developers who shipped a Mars game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 119 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $449 → $1.0k → $179 → $628 → $898 → $1.8k (still earning) → $836 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 295
Announced 119
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 15,198 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Mars

29 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Open World + Mars Fair $2.2k 12 devs
  2. Bullet Hell + Mars Fair $898 10 devs
  3. Resource Management + Mars Poor odds $353k 12 devs
  4. Base Building + Mars Poor odds $58k 15 devs
  5. Colony Sim + Mars Poor odds $50k 13 devs
  6. Building + Mars Poor odds $17k 17 devs
  7. Sandbox + Mars Poor odds $17k 13 devs
  8. Strategy + Mars Poor odds $11k 20 devs
  9. PvE + Mars Poor odds $6.3k 10 devs
  10. Immersive Sim + Mars Poor odds $5.4k 9 devs
  11. Simulation + Mars Poor odds $2.5k 30 devs
  12. Survival + Mars Poor odds $1.8k 16 devs
  13. Exploration + Mars Poor odds $899 25 devs
  14. Adventure + Mars Poor odds $748 31 devs
  15. Physics + Mars Poor odds $718 9 devs
  16. Arcade + Mars Poor odds $599 14 devs
  17. Choices Matter + Mars Poor odds $564 13 devs
  18. Space Sim + Mars Poor odds $479 23 devs
  19. Management + Mars Dead $22k 12 devs
  20. Puzzle + Mars Dead $4.5k 4 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Mars Dead $1.2k 7 devs
  22. RPG + Mars Dead $748 4 devs
  23. Action + Mars Dead $300 29 devs
  24. FPS + Mars Dead $300 4 devs
  25. Shoot 'Em Up + Mars Dead $299 11 devs
  26. Combat + Mars Dead $299 10 devs
  27. Flight + Mars Dead $299 10 devs
  28. Shooter + Mars Dead $179 15 devs
  29. Action-Adventure + Mars Dead $150 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Per Aspera 2020 · $3.7M Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M DOOM 3 2012 · $2.7M Surviving Mars: Relaunched 2025 · $2.6M Occupy Mars: The Game 2026 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
DOOM 3 older $9.99 9,133 85% 274k $2.7M (exactly $2,737,160) id Software
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Deliver Us Mars older $29.99 2,271 74% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,219) KeokeN Interactive
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered older $19.99 3,385 79% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,029,984) Volition, KAIKO
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Fort Solis older $24.99 2,300 69% 69k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,310) Fallen Leaf, Black Drakkar Games
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
1 Trait Escape $9.99 178 97% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Andrew Katz, Jeremy Collette

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.