Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Exploration game?

Exploration + Mars

Of 25 developers who shipped a Mars Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 46 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $226k → $1.5k → $1.0k → $179 → $2.1k → $22k → $50k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,460)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 81
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Open World, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 9,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Surviving Mars: Relaunched 2025 · $2.6M Occupy Mars: The Game 2026 · $2.4M Mars First Logistics 2025 · $2.1M Terraformers 2023 · $1.8M Fort Solis 2023 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Fort Solis older $24.99 2,300 69% 69k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,310) Fallen Leaf, Black Drakkar Games
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Moons of Madness older $24.99 2,189 77% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) Rock Pocket Games
Take On Mars older $9.99 1,751 55% 53k $525k (exactly $524,775) Bohemia Interactive
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Reshaping Mars older $9.99 753 84% 23k $226k (exactly $225,674) Tholus
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
HAS Galactics $11.99 7 28% 210 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) HAS Games
Psychedelia: The Psychonaut $17.99 4 100% 120 $2.2k (exactly $2,159) Rohan Chapman von Wedel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.