Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Mars

Only 10 developers shipped a Mars Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 1 Trait Escape, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 2050% on the market; 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2050% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2050% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 89% positive over 300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jamestown older $9.99 652 94% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Final Form Games
1 Trait Escape $9.99 178 97% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Andrew Katz, Jeremy Collette
DemonStar older $2.99 248 94% 7.4k $22k (exactly $22,246) Scott Host
G WARRIOR older $4.99 106 90% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) Liao Kai, LKK GAME
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
Devader older $7.99 32 93% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Falkenbrew
The Sand Knight older $14.99 17 100% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) LAN Line Games, Iso Sprites, BW Game De… (LAN Line Games, Iso Sprites, BW Game Developers)
MechNest older $15.99 14 71% 420 $6.7k (exactly $6,716) PoisonGames
Teslapunk older $8.99 17 88% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) klutzGames, Fleischfilm
Project Neon $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) FULLSET
Battle for Asciion $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Relevo
IRONBORNE $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Tres Interactive
Blood Aliens 3 $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ciberrex Games
Bryan's Indie Collection $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Bryan Veres
Cowboy In Space $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Da Waffle H8ter
Tretrais · EA $3.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DJAS Games
Orbital Purge $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bozjatorium

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.