Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars PvE game?

PvE + Mars

Only 10 developers shipped a Mars PvE game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Occupy Mars: The Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is up 1795% on the market; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1795% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $3.1k → $353k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 26
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1795% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 73% positive over 3,462 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + DinosaursPoor odds28 devs · median $5.4k · 43 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
1 Trait Escape $9.99 178 97% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Andrew Katz, Jeremy Collette
Earth vs Mars $14.99 74 85% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Relic Entertainment
MARS 2120 older $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) QUByte Interactive
MechNest older $15.99 14 71% 420 $6.7k (exactly $6,716) PoisonGames
Star Titans : War of the Galaxy $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Mediawork
Scionide · EA $14.99 7 71% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) SYONIX
The Echoes of Mars older $3.99 19 73% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Georgii Antipin
Melon Dusk · EA older $1.99 23 86% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) SeedWall
Rank: Warmaster Bunker Buster $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Laser Beams & Particle Streams Soft… (Laser Beams & Particle Streams Software, Inc.)
Bryan's Indie Collection $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Bryan Veres
Cowboy In Space $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Da Waffle H8ter
Tretrais · EA $3.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DJAS Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.