Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Combat game?

Combat + Mars

Only 10 developers shipped a Mars Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 1 Trait Escape, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 15 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Combat + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 95% positive over 207 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
1 Trait Escape $9.99 178 97% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Andrew Katz, Jeremy Collette
DemonStar older $2.99 248 94% 7.4k $22k (exactly $22,246) Scott Host
BlackChain older $4.99 110 84% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) Borington
G WARRIOR older $4.99 106 90% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) Liao Kai, LKK GAME
Corridor 7: Alien Invasion older $9.99 41 85% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) Capstone Software
Caverns of Mars: Recharged older $9.99 34 88% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) SneakyBox
Star Titans : War of the Galaxy $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Mediawork
Scionide · EA $14.99 7 71% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) SYONIX
Birchian Flight Simulator · EA older $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) BirchTree, Generalissimo Birchimus, Cap… (BirchTree, Generalissimo Birchimus, Captain Birchia, Lieutenant Soli Deo Gloria, The ZFC defined set of all developers of the Birchian 6D metaverse inside the 5th Phase of the Birchian Universe, after Setember of 2024.)
NeverDeath older $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Greedy Merchant
Rank: Warmaster Bunker Buster $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Laser Beams & Particle Streams Soft… (Laser Beams & Particle Streams Software, Inc.)
Blood Aliens 3 $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ciberrex Games
Astro Miners $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Jinx Digital
Mars Bot Battle $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Christopher Shove, Ph.D.
Mine Defender · EA $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Rust Power
Pink Devil $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Lola Fisher
Zero-G Combat · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fantasia for Information

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.