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Should I ship a Mars Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Mars
Only 13 developers shipped a Mars Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dissent on Mars, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $560, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×27 the market median. Revenue is up 470% on the market; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $564 (exactly $564) |
| Top 25% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 5% | $17k (exactly $17,094) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 470% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Mars
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 128 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Terraformers 2023 · $1.8M 
Mars Horizon 2020 · $1.7M 
The Technomancer 2016 · $686k 
Mars: War Logs 2013 · $367k 
Gaia Project 2021 · $263k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Terraformers | older | $19.99 | 3,031 88% | 91k | $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) | Asteroid Lab |
| | Mars Horizon | older | $19.99 | 2,757 84% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) | Auroch Digital |
| | The Technomancer | older | $9.99 | 2,288 68% | 69k | $686k (exactly $685,714) | Spiders |
| | Mars: War Logs | older | $4.99 | 2,450 75% | 74k | $367k (exactly $366,765) | Spiders |
| | Gaia Project | older | $24.99 | 351 80% | 11k | $263k (exactly $263,145) | DIGIDICED |
 | Gaia Beyond | older | $14.99 | 240 73% | 7.2k | $108k (exactly $107,928) | Warp Turtle |
 | Dissent on Mars | $29.99 | 19 47% | 570 | $17k (exactly $17,094) | Michael Hicks, Gonçalo Antunes | |
 | Donutal | $9.99 | 30 93% | 900 | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) | Arc System Works | |
 | REPUNK | older | $8.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $8.1k (exactly $8,091) | Almar |
 | Destination Ares | older | $9.99 | 21 38% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) | Pat Scott |
 | Life on Mars (MiZtyl) | $14.99 | 12 33% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | MiZtyl | |
 | debris | $9.99 | 6 16% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Evar Space | |
 | Asymptote | $4.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) | Crazish Games | |
 | The Gods of the Red Planet | $2.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $628 (exactly $628) | Aurora Way Studios | |
 | Anunaki Clicker | $0.99 | 19 68% | 570 | $564 (exactly $564) | DeveloperSansFrontieres | |
 | the epic and amazing adventure of gleepglorrpgilliandoohiggintilliousMMDCCXXXIX the adventure where gleepglorrpgilliandoohiggintilliousMMDCCXXXIX lives and becomes king gleepglorrpgilliandoohiggintilliousMMDCCXXXIX | $0.99 | 17 100% | 510 | $505 (exactly $505) | Hydyhude | |
 | The Long Drift | $3.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $479 (exactly $479) | GOGOIO Games | |
 | Blood Aliens 3 | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Ciberrex Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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