Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Building game?

Building + Mars

Only 17 developers shipped a Mars Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Surviving Mars: Relaunched, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×27 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4207 the market median. Revenue is up 23150% on the market; 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 23150% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $226k → $9.7k → $6.3k → $1.7M → $816k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Median $17k (exactly $17,094)
Top 25% $816k (exactly $815,617)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 51
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 23150% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Base Building, Exploration
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 14,621 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.8k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $810k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
MarZ: Tactical Base Defense older $21.99 808 77% 24k $533k (exactly $533,038) Giant Grey
Take On Mars older $9.99 1,751 55% 53k $525k (exactly $524,775) Bohemia Interactive
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Dissent on Mars $29.99 19 47% 570 $17k (exactly $17,094) Michael Hicks, Gonçalo Antunes
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.