Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Mars

Only 4 developers shipped a Mars Puzzle game in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 13 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.5k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×13 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $0 → $179
Outcomes for Puzzle + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,910)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151)
Developers, 4 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,731 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 13 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Moons of Madness older $24.99 2,189 77% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) Rock Pocket Games
Farlanders older $14.99 510 89% 15k $229k (exactly $229,347) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Waking Mars older $9.99 651 89% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tiger Style
Relicta older $19.99 234 76% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Mighty Polygon
Rover Mechanic Simulator older $11.99 376 82% 11k $135k (exactly $135,247) ▲ Pyramid Games
Planetiles older $9.99 72 77% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) MythicOwl
Romeow: to the cracked Mars older $9.99 63 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Remix Games
Bonkies older $14.99 34 94% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Studio Gauntlet
MILF HUNTER older $1.99 105 91% 3.2k $6.3k (exactly $6,268) Milk Poison
The Vault: Logic Puzzle Box $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Peaksel
Miner Vidis $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) REDSEN GAME
Bussy Master: Halloween 2024 $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Kink Master Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.