Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Open World game?

Open World + Mars

Only 12 developers shipped a Mars Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Surviving Mars: Relaunched, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 15 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,159)
Top 25% $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 15
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 9,520 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $2.0M, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 15 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Surviving Mars: Relaunched 2025 · $2.6M Occupy Mars: The Game 2026 · $2.4M Mars First Logistics 2025 · $2.1M Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered 2018 · $2.0M Red Faction®: Armageddon™ 2011 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered older $19.99 3,385 79% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,029,984) Volition, KAIKO
Red Faction®: Armageddon™ older $19.99 2,615 70% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,568,215) Volition
The Technomancer older $9.99 2,288 68% 69k $686k (exactly $685,714) Spiders
Take On Mars older $9.99 1,751 55% 53k $525k (exactly $524,775) Bohemia Interactive
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Mars: War Logs older $4.99 2,450 75% 74k $367k (exactly $366,765) Spiders
Gaia Beyond older $14.99 240 73% 7.2k $108k (exactly $107,928) Warp Turtle
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Psychedelia: The Psychonaut $17.99 4 100% 120 $2.2k (exactly $2,159) Rohan Chapman von Wedel
debris $9.99 6 16% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Evar Space
Terraspace $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Black Apple
Invasion 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) CDIS Lab.
Journey to Earth $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Digital Kingdom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.