Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Action game?

Action + Mars

Of 29 developers who shipped a Mars Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 2050% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $98k → $5.4k → $150 → $16k → $179 → $299 → $450 (still earning) → $836 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 129
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2050% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Adventure, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 1990's, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 337 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DOOM 3 older $9.99 9,133 85% 274k $2.7M (exactly $2,737,160) id Software
Deliver Us Mars older $29.99 2,271 74% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,219) KeokeN Interactive
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered older $19.99 3,385 79% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,029,984) Volition, KAIKO
Red Faction®: Armageddon™ older $19.99 2,615 70% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,568,215) Volition
Red Faction older $9.99 2,421 85% 73k $726k (exactly $725,574) Volition
The Technomancer older $9.99 2,288 68% 69k $686k (exactly $685,714) Spiders
Mars: War Logs older $4.99 2,450 75% 74k $367k (exactly $366,765) Spiders
Jamestown older $9.99 652 94% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Final Form Games
Waking Mars older $9.99 651 89% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tiger Style
Chaser older $4.99 1,113 72% 33k $167k (exactly $166,616) Cauldron
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
1 Trait Escape $9.99 178 97% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Andrew Katz, Jeremy Collette
XENO WIPEOUT! $9.99 34 79% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Rama Studio
Saving Princess Of Mars $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Hrtz Games
Scionide · EA $14.99 7 71% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) SYONIX
Project Neon $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) FULLSET
Psychedelia: The Psychonaut $17.99 4 100% 120 $2.2k (exactly $2,159) Rohan Chapman von Wedel
Battle for Asciion $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Relevo
Off World Racing · EA $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Off World Racing Company
IRONBORNE $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Tres Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.