Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Sandbox?

Sandbox + Mars

Only 13 developers shipped a Mars Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Occupy Mars: The Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×27 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is up 38685% on the market; 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 38685% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $2.5k → $1.7M → $816k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $17k (exactly $17,094)
Top 25% $816k (exactly $815,617)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 42
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 38685% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 12,330 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $810k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered older $19.99 3,385 79% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,029,984) Volition, KAIKO
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Take On Mars older $9.99 1,751 55% 53k $525k (exactly $524,775) Bohemia Interactive
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Farlanders older $14.99 510 89% 15k $229k (exactly $229,347) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Dissent on Mars $29.99 19 47% 570 $17k (exactly $17,094) Michael Hicks, Gonçalo Antunes
Deep Space Tavern $5.99 21 90% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) World Away Games
HAS Galactics $11.99 7 28% 210 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) HAS Games
Exo Digger $4.99 14 14% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) TornaGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.