Should I ship a Horse game?
Horses
Of 99 developers who shipped a Horse game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 153 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $535 (exactly $535) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,392) |
| Top 5% | $872k (exactly $872,427) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 99 |
| Released games | 333 |
| Announced | 153 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Horses
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 146,186 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
All pairs with Horses
- Resource Management + Horses Fair $1.2k
- Life Sim + Horses Poor odds $104k
- Sandbox + Horses Poor odds $70k
- Farming Sim + Horses Poor odds $70k
- Open World + Horses Poor odds $25k
- Management + Horses Poor odds $25k
- RPG + Horses Poor odds $18k
- Immersive Sim + Horses Poor odds $13k
- Exploration + Horses Poor odds $11k
- Simulation + Horses Poor odds $7.0k
- Adventure + Horses Poor odds $6.0k
- Character Customization + Horses Poor odds $5.5k
- Action-Adventure + Horses Poor odds $3.7k
- Sports + Horses Poor odds $3.3k
- Racing + Horses Poor odds $2.4k
- Strategy + Horses Poor odds $1.8k
- Choices Matter + Horses Poor odds $1.7k
- Action + Horses Poor odds $1.6k
- Arcade + Horses Poor odds $539
- Economy + Horses Dead $70k
- Building + Horses Dead $13k
- Agriculture + Horses Dead $13k
- Shooter + Horses Dead $1.9k
- Point & Click + Horses Dead $1.4k
- Puzzle + Horses Dead $299
Comparable games
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
Mount & Blade: Warband 2010 · $81M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | Mount & Blade: Warband | older | $19.99 | 135,425 97% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $81,214,372) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
 | Farming Simulator 22 | older | $19.99 | 69,477 93% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $41,665,357) | GIANTS Software |
 | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
 | Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm | older | $24.99 | 40,862 79% | 1.2M | $31M (exactly $30,634,241) | Toxic Dog |
 | Red Dead Redemption | $49.99 | 20,294 92% | 609k | $30M (exactly $30,434,912) | Rockstar Games, Double Eleven | |
 | The Ranch of Rivershine | $29.99 | 2,050 94% | 62k | $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) | Cozy Bee Games | |
 | The Legend of Khiimori | · EA | $29.99 | 1,929 82% | 58k | $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) | Aesir Interactive, NightinGames |
 | Horsey Game | $9.99 | 2,911 97% | 87k | $872k (exactly $872,427) | Captain Games | |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Saloon Simulator | · EA | $18.99 | 860 89% | 26k | $490k (exactly $489,942) | Glivi Games S.A. |
 | Unbridled: That Horse Game | · EA | $24.99 | 487 85% | 15k | $365k (exactly $365,104) | Mind Evotion Games |
 | Epic Auto Towers | · EA | $14.99 | 768 70% | 23k | $345k (exactly $345,370) | Aleksandr Golovkin |
 | Viking Frontiers | $19.99 | 537 51% | 16k | $322k (exactly $322,039) | BLUM Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.