Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Sports game?

Sports + Horses

Only 17 developers shipped a Horse Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Full Stride, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×348 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.7k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,041)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $218,338)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 54
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Character Customization, Racing
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Cute, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 718 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rival Stars Horse Racing: Desktop Edition older $29.99 5,032 91% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) PikPok
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
Full Stride $34.99 208 61% 6.2k $218k (exactly $218,338) Blue Bullet Inc.
Starters Orders 7 Horse Racing older $34.99 167 77% 5.0k $175k (exactly $175,300) Strategic Designs Ltd.
Horse Racing Manager · EA $24.99 208 88% 6.2k $156k (exactly $155,938) Sheep Meadow Road Games
My Riding Stables: Life with Horses older $14.99 244 88% 7.3k $110k (exactly $109,727) Sproing
Starters Orders 6 Horse Racing older $34.99 88 76% 2.6k $92k (exactly $92,374) Strategic Designs Ltd.
Tobiano · EA $24.99 81 79% 2.4k $61k (exactly $60,726) Ida Meyer
Pocket Stables older $8.99 190 91% 5.7k $51k (exactly $51,243) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Rival Stars Horse Racing: VR Edition $19.99 41 85% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) PikPok
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Lucinda Green's Equestrian Challenge $4.99 72 72% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,778) IR Gurus Interactive Pty Ltd.
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Tap Derby: Horse Racing $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Frost Warrior Studios
Hole Your Horses: Champion Edition $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Intrusive Thoughts Creative Collective
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.