Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Horses

Only 14 developers shipped a Horse Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Horse Magnifier: The Full Horse, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $535 → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 5% $126k (exactly $125,670)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 41
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 1,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pony Island older $4.99 14,783 95% 443k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,015) Daniel Mullins Games
Horse Magnifier: The Full Horse $2.99 1,401 99% 42k $126k (exactly $125,670) sketbordcat
Nancy Drew®: The Secret of Shadow Ranch older $9.99 217 88% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,035) HeR Interactive
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Furry SexyTails older $1.50 527 85% 16k $24k (exactly $23,715) Furlough Games
Animals Memory older $4.99 64 81% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
100animalease older $6.99 20 95% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) sewohayami, woof Inc.
Knight Swap older $0.99 124 89% 3.7k $3.7k (exactly $3,683) Minimol Games
Unicorn and Sweets 2 older $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Stas Paty9mkin
Chess Knights: High Noon older $2.99 35 77% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Minimol Games
Hogtie $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Alacrity Games
Home Rescue: Clean and Restore Collector's Edition $11.99 4 0% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Avi Games
Hentai Furry Pony $0.99 18 83% 540 $535 (exactly $535) Cyber Keks
Wild Horse Racing $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) idlesoul
Animal Pattern $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Neblyn
Carrotour $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) lì tŕ, Eastern, Arian
Horse Craft $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Rumination Games
Wild West Furry - Hentai Jigsaw $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Black Hole

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.