Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Life Sim?

Life Sim + Horses

Only 18 developers shipped a Horse Life Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Ranch of Rivershine, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $100k, ×166 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2937 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 165.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $69k → $13k → $70k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,778)
Median $104k (exactly $104,162)
Top 25% $322k (exactly $322,039)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 47
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Agriculture
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $100k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Calico older $11.99 3,238 88% 97k $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) Peachy Keen Games
Cattails | Become a Cat! older $14.99 2,315 95% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,041,056) Falcon Development
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Harvest Moon: The Winds of Anthos older $49.99 370 73% 11k $555k (exactly $554,889) Appci Inc., Natsume Inc.
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Viking Frontiers $19.99 537 51% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.