Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Building game?

Building + Horses

Only 12 developers shipped a Horse Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Ranch of Rivershine, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $630. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 830% on the market, 19 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $13k → $1.0k
Outcomes for Building + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 25% $246k (exactly $245,877)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 830% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Building
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Calico older $11.99 3,238 88% 97k $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) Peachy Keen Games
Depraved older $19.99 1,129 60% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Evil Bite
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
Wildlife Park 2 older $6.99 507 71% 15k $106k (exactly $106,318) b-alive gmbh
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
My Horse: Bonded Spirits older $19.99 130 38% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) Games Incubator
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Horse Farm Simulator · EA $9.99 45 60% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Glow Egg Games
King's Legacy: A Crown Divided Collector's Edition $14.99 4 75% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Cateia Games
Harve $2.99 17 76% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Lunar Studios
Strange Zoo $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Pomerania Games
Kings of Cratia $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) eniscoskun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.