Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Strategy game?

Strategy + Horses

Of 24 developers who shipped a Horse Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×513 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $4.6k → $29k → $5.4k → $7.1k → $449 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $322k (exactly $322,039)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 74
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Immersive Sim, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 2,153 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Mount & Blade: Warband older $19.99 135,425 97% 4.1M $81M (exactly $81,214,372) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword older $9.99 11,213 87% 336k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,536) TaleWorlds Entertainment
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Depraved older $19.99 1,129 60% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Evil Bite
Sons of Valhalla older $19.99 847 66% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) Pixel Chest
Han Xiongnu Wars older $6.99 2,200 67% 66k $461k (exactly $461,340) Shangshi Studio
Epic Auto Towers · EA $14.99 768 70% 23k $345k (exactly $345,370) Aleksandr Golovkin
Viking Frontiers $19.99 537 51% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment
Starters Orders 7 Horse Racing older $34.99 167 77% 5.0k $175k (exactly $175,300) Strategic Designs Ltd.
Horse Racing Manager · EA $24.99 208 88% 6.2k $156k (exactly $155,938) Sheep Meadow Road Games
Batomon Showdown $14.99 327 87% 9.8k $147k (exactly $147,052) berrymint
Tobiano · EA $24.99 81 79% 2.4k $61k (exactly $60,726) Ida Meyer
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Pass Tiger Cage · EA $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 中军MT
Horse Plinko $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Crawley, Womp
Storm Horse Simulator $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) INDIE FORGE STUDIOS S.R.L.
Tap Derby: Horse Racing $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Frost Warrior Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.