Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Horses

Only 15 developers shipped a Horse Action-Adventure in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crimson Desert Enhanced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×5.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240M, ×384686 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 47 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 47 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $653 → $30k → $117k → $300 → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,711)
Top 25% $117k (exactly $116,941)
Top 5% $242M (exactly $241,583,083)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 45
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Gore, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 136,108 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $240M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Red Dead Redemption $49.99 20,294 92% 609k $30M (exactly $30,434,912) Rockstar Games, Double Eleven
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
Han Xiongnu Wars older $6.99 2,200 67% 66k $461k (exactly $461,340) Shangshi Studio
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
My Little Pony: A Zephyr Heights Mystery older $39.99 126 73% 3.8k $151k (exactly $151,162) Drakhar Studios
Golden Chambers · EA $19.99 195 80% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Mr. Pink
Yet Another Fantasy Title (YAFT) older $19.99 181 59% 5.4k $109k (exactly $108,546) Atomic Wolf
Secret of the Magic Crystals older $4.99 640 79% 19k $96k (exactly $95,808) Artery Games
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Trans Theft Horso $11.00 18 100% 540 $5.9k (exactly $5,940) Cow Children Games
Storm Horse Simulator $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) INDIE FORGE STUDIOS S.R.L.
HorSteal $3.99 31 93% 930 $3.7k (exactly $3,711) JebiDeungDeung, Jebi Studio
Deer Hero $3.99 16 93% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Nyoro
Story of the Olivia $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Uğur ÇELİK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.