Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsColony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim?

Colony Sim

Of 471 developers who shipped a Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,066 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4587 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,066 games are announced against 297 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,066 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 471
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $14k → $18k → $10k → $7.8k → $4.0k → $12k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 471
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,027)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $91,154)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839)
Developers, 2 yr 471
Released games 1,175
Announced 1,066
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 183,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 198 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,066 games are announced against 297 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Colony Sim

74 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Colony Sim + Action Poor odds $4.4k 53 devs
  2. Colony Sim + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $4.0k 30 devs
  3. Colony Sim + PvE Poor odds $3.1k 40 devs
  4. Colony Sim + Trading Poor odds $3.1k 20 devs
  5. Colony Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $2.5k 25 devs
  6. Colony Sim + Time Management Poor odds $2.4k 61 devs
  7. Colony Sim + Creature Collector Poor odds $2.4k 17 devs
  8. Colony Sim + Combat Poor odds $2.4k 47 devs
  9. Colony Sim + Auto Battler Poor odds $2.4k 13 devs
  10. Colony Sim + Inventory Management Poor odds $2.1k 14 devs
  11. Colony Sim + Turn-Based Tactics Poor odds $2.1k 18 devs
  12. Colony Sim + Idler Poor odds $2.0k 70 devs
  13. Colony Sim + Real Time Tactics Poor odds $1.9k 49 devs
  14. Colony Sim + Card Game Poor odds $1.8k 13 devs
  15. Colony Sim + Logic Poor odds $1.6k 20 devs
  16. Colony Sim + Outbreak Sim Poor odds $1.3k 13 devs
  17. Colony Sim + Incremental Poor odds $1.1k 58 devs
  18. Colony Sim + Dungeon Crawler Poor odds $899 13 devs
  19. Colony Sim + 2D Platformer Poor odds $599 12 devs
  20. Colony Sim + Point & Click Poor odds $538 20 devs
  21. Online Co-Op + Colony Sim Dead $314k 13 devs
  22. Colony Sim + Flight Dead $9.7k 6 devs
  23. Colony Sim + 3D Platformer Dead $1.5k 2 devs
  24. Colony Sim + Hidden Object Dead $629 8 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.