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Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Outbreak Sim
Only 13 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, After Inc: Revival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1272 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) |
| Top 25% | $73k (exactly $73,163) |
| Top 5% | $799k (exactly $798,756) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Outbreak Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Resource Management, Strategy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, Isometric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,555 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M 
After Inc: Revival 2026 · $799k 
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville 2015 · $668k 
Calyx 2026 · EA · $353k 
Zombie Cure Lab 2025 · $295k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Infection Free Zone | · EA older | $24.99 | 16,568 80% | 497k | $12M (exactly $12,421,030) | Jutsu Games |
| | After Inc: Revival | $17.99 | 1,480 77% | 44k | $799k (exactly $798,756) | Ndemic Creations | |
| | Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville | older | $14.99 | 1,486 86% | 45k | $668k (exactly $668,254) | Northway Games, Sarah Northway |
| | Calyx | · EA | $24.99 | 471 88% | 14k | $353k (exactly $353,109) | Studio 568 |
| | Zombie Cure Lab | $24.99 | 393 65% | 12k | $295k (exactly $294,632) | Thera Bytes GmbH | |
 | Mad Tower Tycoon | older | $14.99 | 413 77% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Eggcode |
 | Rogue AI Simulator | older | $11.99 | 364 82% | 11k | $131k (exactly $130,931) | Nerdook Productions |
 | Quarantineer | older | $9.99 | 307 80% | 9.2k | $92k (exactly $92,008) | Papaonn |
 | Repterra | $19.99 | 122 90% | 3.7k | $73k (exactly $73,163) | Chute Apps | |
 | Genesis of a Small God | $17.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $33k (exactly $32,922) | Pierre Nury | |
 | Warranted Humanity | $11.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $2.2k (exactly $2,158) | Jovano Software | |
 | Moonlit Nights | · EA | $2.99 | 14 64% | 420 | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) | Umut Bora |
 | Dead Night Highway | $9.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Mr. Pink | |
 | Zomboard | · EA | $7.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $719 (exactly $719) | Tania Felidea |
 | World War Forex | · EA | $12.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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