Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + 2D Platformer

Only 12 developers shipped a 2D Platformer Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Demon Castle Story, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $86k → $135k → $32k → $538 → $27k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,891)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 61
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, 2D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, City Builder
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 812 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Village older $8.99 829 88% 25k $224k (exactly $223,581) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Dwarfs!? older $9.99 644 79% 19k $193k (exactly $193,007) Power of 2
Dream Town Island older $12.99 490 95% 15k $191k (exactly $190,953) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Dungeon Village 2 older $8.99 662 86% 20k $179k (exactly $178,541) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Cafe Master Story older $12.99 378 96% 11k $147k (exactly $147,307) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
High Sea Saga DX older $8.99 501 81% 15k $135k (exactly $135,120) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
The Sushi Spinnery older $8.99 411 92% 12k $111k (exactly $110,847) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Demon Castle Story $12.99 257 77% 7.7k $100k (exactly $100,153) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Smelter older $19.99 165 64% 5.0k $99k (exactly $98,950) X PLUS Co., Ltd.
Jumbo Airport Story older $8.99 355 89% 11k $96k (exactly $95,744) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Cavern Adventurers $8.99 117 48% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,555) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Skyship Quest Story $12.99 68 52% 2.0k $27k (exactly $26,500) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Legends of Heropolis DX $10.99 68 42% 2.0k $22k (exactly $22,420) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Final Frontier Story $8.99 48 72% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Tortuga City $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) HerrGrievous
Baduk Challenge (Go Challenge) $10.99 4 50% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) OH YU HWAN
Dwarf Core $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) IncludeSpark
Infinite Evo TD $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Starchase Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.