Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Dungeon Crawler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dungeon Crawler Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Dungeon Crawler

Only 13 developers shipped a Dungeon Crawler Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dungeon Settlers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Dungeon Crawler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Colony Sim + Dungeon Crawler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $170k (exactly $170,315)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 28
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,269 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $900, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Goblin Stone older $24.99 735 52% 22k $551k (exactly $551,030) Orc Chop Games
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Guardians of the Sanctree $19.99 284 72% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) HuCang Studio
Shelter Manager older $14.99 251 62% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Hamsters Gaming
Mega Mall Story older $8.99 302 94% 9.1k $81k (exactly $81,449) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Dungeons & Kingdoms · EA $19.99 80 40% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Uncle Grouch Gaming
Heroes For Hire - Guild Micromanagement Simulator · EA $7.99 9 77% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Untouch
Wayward Valley · EA $14.99 2 0% 60 $899 (exactly $899) PixelPulse Studio
Restoration: Chronicles of Survival $2.99 9 66% 270 $807 (exactly $807) ALGaming
SCP Foundation: Universe Horror · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Great Ave Games
Wanderers' Outpost · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Wind Arthouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.