Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Turn-Based Tactics

Only 18 developers shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Craftlings, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×297 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $505 → $11k → $3.4k → $629 → $2.1k → $1.3k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,090)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,891)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,507)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 48
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Resource Management, City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,501 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Pan'orama older $13.99 1,141 89% 34k $479k (exactly $478,878) Chicken Launcher
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Shelter Manager older $14.99 251 62% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Hamsters Gaming
These Doomed Isles $14.99 180 66% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Triplevision Games Limited
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Edge Islands · EA $17.99 93 74% 2.8k $50k (exactly $50,192) LS Games
The Hundred Year Kingdom older $12.99 79 77% 2.4k $31k (exactly $30,786) kaeru-san games
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games
CastleOn $9.20 24 91% 720 $6.6k (exactly $6,624) Lord Castleon
otters and stones $1.99 35 91% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) otterhands
拓荒纪元 Age of Frontier $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) TriCat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.