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Should I ship a Card Game Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Card Game
Only 13 developers shipped a Card Game Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kingdom's Deck, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×236 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $47,976) |
| Top 5% | $148k (exactly $148,352) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 25 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Card Game
- effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Card Game
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 1,056 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdoms Reborn 2020 · EA · $5.3M 
Kingdom's Deck 2025 · $148k 
Kaya's Prophecy 2025 · $82k 
These Doomed Isles 2024 · $81k 
Project Afterfall 2025 · EA · $48k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdoms Reborn | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,862 90% | 266k | $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) | Earthshine |
| | Kingdom's Deck | $9.99 | 495 72% | 15k | $148k (exactly $148,352) | Ivan Aco | |
| | Kaya's Prophecy | $13.99 | 196 70% | 5.9k | $82k (exactly $82,261) | Jérémie & Thibaut | |
| | These Doomed Isles | $14.99 | 180 66% | 5.4k | $81k (exactly $80,946) | Triplevision Games Limited | |
| | Project Afterfall | · EA | $19.99 | 80 75% | 2.4k | $48k (exactly $47,976) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
 | The Deadly Path | $12.99 | 84 39% | 2.5k | $33k (exactly $32,735) | Owlskip Enterprises | |
 | Fantasy Village Simulator | older | $6.99 | 52 63% | 1.6k | $11k (exactly $10,904) | CYCLOPS |
 | Neanderthal | older | $15.99 | 7 14% | 210 | $3.4k (exactly $3,358) | MipMap, Natdanai Puthom, Stewart Wan, E… (MipMap, Natdanai Puthom, Stewart Wan, Erico Pizarro Gutierrez) |
 | The Call of Krul'ar | older | $2.99 | 32 84% | 960 | $2.9k (exactly $2,870) | Devious Oatmeal |
 | Into The Depths | $14.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) | SmelJey | |
 | Overton | $14.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | Casey Blase | |
 | Gnome Glade | $4.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Ykedepi | |
 | Stack Epoch | $3.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $479 (exactly $479) | StonegrassStudio | |
 | Battle Babes 2 | $14.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $450 (exactly $450) | Recoil Mojo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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