Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + PvE

Of 40 developers who shipped a PvE Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $15M, ×24401 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 122 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 122 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $3.1k → $1.3k → $7.2k → $6.1k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $121k (exactly $120,520)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $15,323,690)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 81
Announced 122
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.97

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, PvE; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Management, Strategy
Price point
$13.97 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $13.97.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 67,847 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $15M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Soulmask 2026 · $17M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Diplomacy is Not an Option 2024 · $9.8M Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days 2025 · EA · $6.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Noble Legacy · EA $24.99 744 70% 22k $558k (exactly $557,777) Ultimus Rex LLC
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.