Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Logic

Of 20 developers who shipped a Logic Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5150 the market median. Revenue is up 1245% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1245% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $359 → $599 → $7.9k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 43
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1245% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Logic; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Base Building, Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
Winter · EA older $29.99 340 73% 10k $306k (exactly $305,898) Frostfall Realms Studios
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Mistward $11.99 74 59% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Sokpop Collective
Nova Patria $11.99 22 100% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Sower Interactive
Army To Army older $24.99 9 55% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Piece Of Voxel
Match Village older $3.99 51 84% 1.5k $6.1k (exactly $6,105) Rising Moon Games
MOAI 7: Mystery Coast older $8.99 22 77% 660 $5.9k (exactly $5,933) Gamefjord
Avian Colony $9.99 17 82% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Ice Crystal Studio
AUTARKIS $4.99 29 93% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) rockingprojects
Rocket Engineer · EA $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Xavier B.
Truck City $5.99 20 80% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Mikel Fernandez
MicroFab $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Flirp
Orbiteers $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Northborne Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.