Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Trading

Of 20 developers who shipped a Trading Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×827 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 72 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 72 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $4.7k → $4.6k → $3.1k → $3.6k → $2.4k → $6.1k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,350)
Top 5% $520k (exactly $519,542)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 51
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Base Building, Building
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pharaoh™: A New Era older $22.99 4,811 75% 144k $3.3M (exactly $3,318,147) Triskell Interactive
The Guild II Renaissance older $9.99 3,540 82% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,938) Runeforge Game Studio
Nebuchadnezzar older $19.99 1,443 79% 43k $865k (exactly $865,367) Nepos Games
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
Primitive Society Simulator · EA older $19.99 647 83% 19k $388k (exactly $388,006) YSH BigDove
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Mad Tower Tycoon older $14.99 413 77% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Eggcode
One More Island older $19.99 195 68% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Berg Games
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
AColony · EA older $19.99 116 87% 3.5k $70k (exactly $69,565) ZeroTris
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody
Union Of Rivals · EA $25.49 31 64% 930 $24k (exactly $23,706) 2Play
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games
Cube Kingdoms $7.49 27 92% 810 $6.1k (exactly $6,067) GamingPugsStudios
Exodus: The Colonization of Space $6.99 19 100% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) Artex
The EverFloating Island $19.99 6 33% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) GU GAMES
Truck City $5.99 20 80% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Mikel Fernandez
Ancient Savo $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Erkka Lehmus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.