Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Real Time Tactics?

Colony Sim + Real Time Tactics

Of 49 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×562 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 115 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 115 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179k → $659 → $11k → $450 → $3.3k → $9.0k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,735)
Top 5% $353k (exactly $353,109)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 116
Announced 115
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Real Time Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 30,215 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Definitive Edition older $14.99 9,787 86% 294k $4.4M (exactly $4,401,214) Firefly Studios
Stronghold 2: Steam Edition older $14.99 4,881 88% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,986) Firefly Studios
Stronghold HD (2012) older $5.99 8,651 95% 260k $1.6M (exactly $1,554,585) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Legends: Steam Edition older $14.99 2,297 87% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,032,961) Firefly Studios
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Oxygen older $14.99 830 70% 25k $373k (exactly $373,251) Turquoise Revival Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon · EA $12.99 106 95% 3.2k $41k (exactly $41,308) KC Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.