Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Action

Of 53 developers who shipped an Action Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×7.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2299 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 147 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 147 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $17k → $235k → $449 → $4.7k → $6.0k → $5.1k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $77,219)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 152
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Action; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Exploration, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 33,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $77k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
下一站江湖Ⅱ older $24.99 8,507 72% 255k $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) 白玉京工作室
Colony Survival · EA older $24.95 8,260 92% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,182,610) Pipliz
Cartel Tycoon older $29.99 2,822 75% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Moon Moose
Until We Die older $16.99 4,221 62% 127k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,444) Pixeye Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Astro Colony $19.99 2,397 80% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) Terad Games
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.