Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Combat

Of 47 developers who shipped a Combat Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1221 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 113 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 113 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $17k → $9.7k → $449 → $2.4k → $2.4k → $1.4k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,927)
Top 5% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 91
Announced 113
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Sandbox, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 23,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulmask 2026 · $17M Stranded: Alien Dawn 2023 · $10M Songs of Syx 2020 · EA · $6.6M Frozenheim 2022 · $2.1M The Last Starship 2026 · $973k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Frozenheim older $19.99 3,463 70% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) Paranoid Interactive
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Darfall $24.99 491 71% 15k $368k (exactly $368,103) SquareNite
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Empires and Tribes older $24.99 392 66% 12k $294k (exactly $293,882) White Vertex Studios
Polylithic $14.99 278 71% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) polyperfect
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
Goblin Camp $19.99 118 76% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) Korppi Games Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.