Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Incremental

Of 58 developers who shipped an Incremental Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 105 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 105 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $683 → $3.3k → $450 → $2.1k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,134)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,689)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,618)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 102
Announced 105
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 195% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Incremental; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 6,327 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
All Hail the Orb $6.99 1,291 93% 39k $271k (exactly $270,723) LeGingerDev
IDLE BOSS RUSH $9.99 820 66% 25k $246k (exactly $245,754) Irid Games
Factory Town Idle older $4.99 1,232 90% 37k $184k (exactly $184,430) Erik Asmussen
Hole Is Mine $7.99 741 90% 22k $178k (exactly $177,618) Incrementalist
Moose Miners older $9.99 518 69% 16k $155k (exactly $155,245) Lingon Studios
MR FARMBOY $9.99 480 85% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) mrdboy
FEED THE QUEEN $7.99 577 69% 17k $138k (exactly $138,307) Quiétude
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Fill Up The Hole $2.99 1,165 90% 35k $105k (exactly $104,501) Fluffy Lotus
Bunny Park older $4.99 692 90% 21k $104k (exactly $103,592) Cozy Bee Games
Idle Colony $5.99 551 82% 17k $99k (exactly $99,015) Faith G.
Spiritstead $9.99 152 83% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,554) Turbo Dog Games
refarm $3.99 298 87% 8.9k $36k (exactly $35,671) otterhands

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.