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Should I ship a Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter
Of 4,098 developers who shipped a Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,795 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $15,588) |
| Top 5% | $346k (exactly $346,343) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 4,098 |
| Released games | 11,558 |
| Announced | 7,795 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 642,606 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Choices Matter
- Choices Matter + World War II Poor odds $1.3k
- Choices Matter + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Noir Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Mythology Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Futuristic Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Zombies Poor odds $1.2k
- Choices Matter + Hacking Poor odds $1.0k
- Choices Matter + Dogs Poor odds $899
- Choices Matter + Faith Poor odds $898
- Choices Matter + Underground Poor odds $807
- Choices Matter + Space Poor odds $719
- Choices Matter + Cats Poor odds $719
- Choices Matter + Robots Poor odds $719
- Choices Matter + Nature Poor odds $718
- Choices Matter + Aliens Poor odds $629
- Choices Matter + Underwater Poor odds $600
- Choices Matter + Mars Poor odds $564
- Choices Matter + Snow Poor odds $299
- Choices Matter + Dinosaurs Dead $1.6k
- Choices Matter + Ninja Dead $719
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
 | Detroit: Become Human | older | $39.99 | 226,411 96% | 6.8M | $272M (exactly $271,625,277) | Quantic Dream |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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