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Should I ship a Futuristic Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Futuristic
Of 202 developers who shipped a Futuristic Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 410 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×239 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 410 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,188) |
| Top 25% | $7.3k (exactly $7,340) |
| Top 5% | $113k (exactly $113,343) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 202 |
| Released games | 514 |
| Announced | 410 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 10,881 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 410 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Detroit: Become Human 2020 · $272M 
Terminator: Resistance 2019 · $20M 
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters 2022 · $15M 
ELEX 2017 · $11M 
The Invincible 2023 · $9.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Detroit: Become Human | older | $39.99 | 226,411 96% | 6.8M | $272M (exactly $271,625,277) | Quantic Dream |
| | Terminator: Resistance | older | $39.99 | 16,665 91% | 500k | $20M (exactly $19,993,000) | Teyon |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters | older | $44.99 | 11,426 76% | 343k | $15M (exactly $15,421,672) | Complex Games |
| | ELEX | older | $29.99 | 12,443 72% | 373k | $11M (exactly $11,194,967) | Piranha Bytes |
| | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
 | Cloudpunk | older | $19.99 | 13,788 87% | 414k | $8.3M (exactly $8,268,664) | ION LANDS |
 | Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown | $34.99 | 4,162 79% | 125k | $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) | Gamexcite | |
 | I Was a Teenage Exocolonist | older | $24.99 | 4,443 96% | 133k | $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) | Northway Games |
 | Dune: Imperium | older | $22.99 | 3,806 94% | 114k | $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) | Dire Wolf |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II | $39.99 | 2,088 53% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) | Bulwark Studios | |
 | LumenTale: Memories of Trey | $24.99 | 1,130 70% | 34k | $847k (exactly $847,161) | Beehive Studios | |
 | A.I.L.A | $29.99 | 889 81% | 27k | $800k (exactly $799,833) | Pulsatrix Studios | |
 | Projekt: Passion - Season 2 | $11.99 | 1,005 93% | 30k | $361k (exactly $361,498) | Classy Lemon | |
 | Sexbot | $14.99 | 723 86% | 22k | $325k (exactly $325,133) | Llamamann Games | |
 | VARLET | $59.99 | 121 47% | 3.6k | $218k (exactly $217,764) | FURYU CORPORATION | |
 | ToHeart | $19.99 | 313 87% | 9.4k | $188k (exactly $187,706) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Starless Abyss | $19.99 | 296 83% | 8.9k | $178k (exactly $177,511) | Konafa Games | |
 | Galaxy Princess Zorana | $24.99 | 154 88% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Hanako Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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