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Should I ship a Ninja Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Ninja
Only 9 developers shipped a Ninja Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ninja Ordinance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $720 against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
| Top 5% | $14k (exactly $14,270) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 10 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Ninja
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,333 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Way of the Samurai 3 2016 · $522k 
Swords of Gurrah 2020 · EA · $280k 
Kamiwaza: Way of the Thief 2022 · $85k 
NEKO-NIN exHeart 2 2018 · $84k 
Blind Fate: Edo no Yami 2022 · $79k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Way of the Samurai 3 | older | $19.99 | 871 73% | 26k | $522k (exactly $522,339) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Swords of Gurrah | · EA older | $14.99 | 622 78% | 19k | $280k (exactly $279,713) | Devster, LLC |
| | Kamiwaza: Way of the Thief | older | $39.99 | 71 84% | 2.1k | $85k (exactly $85,179) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | NEKO-NIN exHeart 2 | older | $9.99 | 279 95% | 8.4k | $84k (exactly $83,616) | Whirlpool |
| | Blind Fate: Edo no Yami | older | $19.99 | 131 61% | 3.9k | $79k (exactly $78,561) | Troglobytes Games |
 | Taimanin Asagi | older | $14.99 | 161 84% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $72,402) | Lilith |
 | Ninja Girl and the Mysterious Army of Urban Legend Monsters! ~Hunt of the Headless Horseman~ | older | $15.99 | 62 90% | 1.9k | $30k (exactly $29,741) | code:jp |
 | Disgraced | older | $9.99 | 76 84% | 2.3k | $23k (exactly $22,777) | Corrosive Studios LLC |
 | Secret Agent | older | $24.99 | 26 65% | 780 | $19k (exactly $19,492) | ensemble |
 | Ninja Ordinance | $13.99 | 34 73% | 1.0k | $14k (exactly $14,270) | OneCoin | |
 | Ninja Brigade feat. Jonah Weingarten | $12.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) | Impawsible Games | |
 | Assassin's Shadows | $14.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Noxurtica | |
 | Do As I Say - Obedience to the Ninja Master | $14.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $899 (exactly $899) | Girl's Software | |
 | Glusiverse | · EA | $7.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $719 (exactly $719) | Trusiga |
 | Yogoe Hunter | $6.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | Studio Justice | |
 | Shuriken Practice 3 | $7.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | myBad Studios | |
 | Kunoichi's Cadence | $6.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | CodeBlues | |
 | Stabby Redux | · EA | $9.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Soaring Roc Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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