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Should I ship an Underground Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Underground
Of 32 developers who shipped an Underground Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×242 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 61 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $807 (exactly $807) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,365) |
| Top 5% | $115k (exactly $115,142) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 32 |
| Released games | 71 |
| Announced | 61 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,312 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
THE LONGING 2020 · $3.1M 
Paradise Lost 2021 · $661k 
Trolley Problem, Inc. 2022 · $417k 
Air Defender 2025 · EA · $220k 
Time Walker: Dark World 2023 · $215k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | THE LONGING | older | $14.99 | 6,977 92% | 209k | $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) | Studio Seufz |
| | Paradise Lost | older | $14.99 | 1,469 67% | 44k | $661k (exactly $660,609) | PolyAmorous |
| | Trolley Problem, Inc. | older | $10.99 | 1,265 67% | 38k | $417k (exactly $417,070) | ReadGraves |
| | Air Defender | · EA | $20.19 | 364 78% | 11k | $220k (exactly $220,475) | ROTOR3 |
| | Time Walker: Dark World | older | $4.99 | 1,434 85% | 43k | $215k (exactly $214,670) | Heartfun |
 | OBSCURA | · EA older | $14.99 | 453 99% | 14k | $204k (exactly $203,714) | Rotten Raccoons |
 | Cralon | $19.99 | 192 71% | 5.8k | $115k (exactly $115,142) | Pithead Studio | |
 | MUSICUS! | older | $44.99 | 73 94% | 2.2k | $99k (exactly $98,528) | OVERDRIVE |
 | The Siege and the Sandfox | $14.99 | 180 64% | 5.4k | $81k (exactly $80,946) | Cardboard Sword | |
 | Techno Banter | $17.99 | 113 91% | 3.4k | $61k (exactly $60,986) | Dexai Arts, Crunching Koalas | |
 | Underchoice | $7.99 | 113 72% | 3.4k | $27k (exactly $27,086) | TG Indie | |
 | Kriophobia | $14.99 | 60 90% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $26,982) | Fira Soft | |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Stretcher Together | $4.99 | 116 47% | 3.5k | $17k (exactly $17,365) | Goosix Games | |
 | The Old Flesh of Nuraga | $3.99 | 114 94% | 3.4k | $14k (exactly $13,646) | Studio Ortica | |
 | Dig & Deal | $9.99 | 29 75% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | ToYa Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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