Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Cats

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cat Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Cats

Of 61 developers who shipped a Cat Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×1021 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 109 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 109 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Cats
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $3.6k → $178 → $748 → $807 → $1.9k → $479 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Cats: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,189)
Top 5% $485k (exactly $485,153)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 159
Announced 109
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cats
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 62,584 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Blacksad: Under the Skin older $19.99 5,356 83% 161k $3.2M (exactly $3,211,993) Pendulo Studios, YS Interactive
Beat Cop older $14.99 4,841 81% 145k $2.2M (exactly $2,176,998) Pixel Crow
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
OneShot: World Machine Edition $9.99 5,349 98% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,603,095) Future Cat LLC
Cat's Kiss older $14.99 1,528 89% 46k $687k (exactly $687,142) Narrator, STORIA
BROK the InvestiGator older $19.99 985 97% 30k $591k (exactly $590,704) COWCAT
Organized Inside $7.99 2,024 94% 61k $485k (exactly $485,153) Meox Studio
CraftCraft: Fantasy Merchant Simulator $15.99 531 81% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) Placeholder Gameworks, Pineapple Works
The Beekeeper's Picnic - A Sherlockian Adventure $13.99 467 97% 14k $196k (exactly $196,000) The Wonder Room
Teller's Duty $11.99 388 72% 12k $140k (exactly $139,564) Hiscory
The Floor Above $12.99 217 88% 6.5k $85k (exactly $84,565) Swytapp Games
Curiosity: A Cat Climbing Game $9.99 220 96% 6.6k $66k (exactly $65,934) DarkBear Studios, iNightGaming LLC
Moses & Plato - Last Train to Clawville $19.99 104 88% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) The Wild Gentlemen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.