Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Hacking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hacking Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter + Hacking

Of 38 developers who shipped a Hacking Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $260; 1 in 20 cleared $74k, ×157 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 80 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 80 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Hacking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $16k → $1.9k → $9.3k → $1.1k → $150 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Hacking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $258 (exactly $258)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 5% $75k (exactly $74,707)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 80
Announced 80
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Hacking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dialogue Heavy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,934 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $260, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $260. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You older $9.99 8,936 90% 268k $2.7M (exactly $2,678,119) Osmotic Studios
Observer: System Redux older $29.99 2,462 84% 74k $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) Bloober Team, Anshar Studios
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Beyond a Steel Sky older $34.99 1,295 87% 39k $1.4M (exactly $1,359,362) Revolution Software Ltd
ANONYMOUS;CODE older $59.99 510 78% 15k $918k (exactly $917,847) MAGES. Inc.
Song of Farca older $19.99 1,385 78% 42k $831k (exactly $830,584) Wooden Monkeys
Orwell: Ignorance is Strength older $9.99 1,506 77% 45k $451k (exactly $451,348) Osmotic Studios
SIMULACRA 2 older $7.99 1,378 87% 41k $330k (exactly $330,307) Kaigan Games
Counter Terrorist Agency older $19.99 479 43% 14k $287k (exactly $287,256) Play2Chill
PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION $13.99 178 87% 5.3k $75k (exactly $74,707) Banana Hardsoft
Hacked: The Streamer $8.49 268 73% 8.0k $68k (exactly $68,260) Button Interactive, NAISU
Web Host Simulator · EA $24.99 42 26% 1.3k $31k (exactly $31,487) Chibum
Backseat $9.99 85 71% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) HOGO Games
Within the Cosmos $14.99 53 43% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) debdev
Cyber Warrior $19.99 39 84% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Dunke Games
Hello Stranger $9.99 31 80% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) PRM Games
Torrent Empire $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Steel Games
AI is Home - Survival Thriller $7.99 23 60% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) pressanykey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.