Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim?

Space Sim

Of 407 developers who shipped a Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 768 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1076 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 768 games are announced against 262 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 768 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 407
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.5k → $989 → $832 → $809 → $598 → $898 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 407
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,472)
Top 5% $676k (exactly $675,704)
Developers, 2 yr 407
Released games 1,396
Announced 768
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 49,165 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 183 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 768 games are announced against 262 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Space Sim

95 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. PvP + Space Sim Poor odds $899 20 devs
  2. Grand Strategy + Space Sim Poor odds $899 12 devs
  3. Space Sim + Wargame Poor odds $898 25 devs
  4. Space Sim + God Game Poor odds $898 10 devs
  5. Space Sim + Physics Poor odds $839 95 devs
  6. Immersive Sim + Space Sim Poor odds $719 60 devs
  7. Space Sim + Idler Poor odds $599 39 devs
  8. Space Sim + Incremental Poor odds $599 32 devs
  9. Space Sim + Choices Matter Poor odds $598 35 devs
  10. Space Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $598 27 devs
  11. PvE + Space Sim Poor odds $539 70 devs
  12. Action-Adventure + Space Sim Poor odds $539 32 devs
  13. Space Sim + Action Roguelike Poor odds $539 23 devs
  14. Space Sim + Action Poor odds $478 153 devs
  15. Character Customization + Space Sim Poor odds $299 25 devs
  16. Space Sim + Hidden Object Poor odds $239 12 devs
  17. Space Sim + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $210 19 devs
  18. Action RPG + Space Sim Poor odds $179 15 devs
  19. Space Sim + Time Manipulation Poor odds $150 10 devs
  20. Space Sim + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $90 13 devs
  21. Open World Survival Craft + Space Sim Dead $50k 8 devs
  22. Gun Customization + Space Sim Dead $3.9k 7 devs
  23. Automobile Sim + Space Sim Dead $899 5 devs
  24. Driving + Space Sim Dead $899 5 devs
  25. Space Sim + Puzzle Platformer Dead $839 4 devs
  26. FPS + Space Sim Dead $479 18 devs
  27. Space Sim + Tower Defense Dead $479 13 devs
  28. Space Sim + Bullet Hell Dead $478 40 devs
  29. Flight + Space Sim Dead $359 90 devs
  30. Space Sim + Platformer Dead $300 9 devs
  31. Space Sim + Twin Stick Shooter Dead $298 8 devs
  32. Space Sim + 2D Platformer Dead $270 25 devs
  33. Combat Racing + Space Sim Dead $270 4 devs
  34. Shooter + Space Sim Dead $239 64 devs
  35. Space Sim + Top-Down Shooter Dead $239 31 devs
  36. Space Sim + Shoot 'Em Up Dead $239 29 devs
  37. Space Sim + Arcade Dead $210 62 devs
  38. Space Sim + 3D Platformer Dead $210 18 devs
  39. Racing + Space Sim Dead $180 17 devs
  40. Third-Person Shooter + Space Sim Dead $179 8 devs
  41. Arena Shooter + Space Sim Dead $59 9 devs
  42. Space Sim + Score Attack Dead $0 13 devs
  43. Space Sim + Local Multiplayer Dead $0 7 devs
  44. 3D Fighter + Space Sim Dead $0 5 devs
  45. Space Sim + Runner Dead $0 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Starfield 2023 · $173M Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M Space Engineers 2019 · $60M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Starfield older $49.99 115,202 58% 3.5M $173M (exactly $172,768,439) Bethesda Game Studios
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.