Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Space Sim?

Space Sim + Wargame

Of 25 developers who shipped a Wargame Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×28 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $1.3k → $776 → $4.2k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 73
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Combat, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Space Crew: Legendary Edition older $15.99 1,684 77% 51k $808k (exactly $807,815) Runner Duck
Dust Fleet older $19.99 193 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Orbiting Disco
Galactic Ruler older $19.99 104 47% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) BattleGoat Studios
Gemini Wars older $9.99 141 32% 4.2k $42k (exactly $42,258) Camel 101
ReEarth older $7.99 116 74% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Jiangzuogongfang Shanghai Game Co.,Ltd
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
WarOS · EA $19.99 29 72% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) The7 Studio
Stellar Sovereigns older $24.99 20 55% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) Imagined Reality
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Deep Dark Forest $7.99 41 87% 1.2k $9.8k (exactly $9,828) pixiangames
Star Titans : War of the Galaxy $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Mediawork
Artemis Cosmos $6.99 20 70% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) Incandescent Workshop LLC
New Stars $19.99 5 60% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) adamjr
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
Armada: Last Light $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Brock Pivirotto

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.